John Maynard Keynes wrote that gut feelings - or "animal spirits," as he called them - were often more important to investment decisions than a "mathematical expectation."
President-elect Donald Trump, too, understands animal spirits. It's just that the animal he has in mind is a sheep.
Or so it seems from the way he is forcefully herding American automakers back across the U.S.-Mexico border, like so many wayward ovines - with Twitter as his digital crook.
And if the companies' response to this blatant political strong-arming of their supposedly free enterprises is any indication, Trump has read Detroit right.
Ford announced Monday that it will not be building a planned $1.6 billion small-car plant in Mexico, which Trump had condemned as a betrayal of U.S. workers. Explaining the capitulation on CNBC, Ford chief executive Mark Fields acknowledged his duty to shareholders, but added, "We have to make sure, at the same time, that we have good relations with the various governments that are in power."