It's 2016, when the election will finally get to the voters. Yes, the presidential cycle is already more than three years old. Republican candidates started competing for this year's nomination the day after the November 2012 election, and Hillary Clinton probably started planning for 2016 at some point in 2009. But now it's time to start watching other races, too.
Republicans currently hold 54 seats, but Democrats have several opportunities to close the gap. That's because the third of the Senate contested this year was elected in 2010, a good Republican year. "The question is not whether Democrats will pick up Senate seats next year, it is almost certainly how many," the National Journal's guide predicts.
Republican incumbents in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania are all endangered, as is an open Republican seat in Florida. The only similarly vulnerable Democratic seat is in Nevada, where Harry Reid is retiring. But the state has trended Democratic.