Archive

May 2nd, 2016

Trump's new slogan has old baggage from Nazi era

    Donald Trump has given up on winning historically literate voters. Consider the theme of his major foreign policy speech Wednesday: "America first."

    This slogan is most associated with aviator Charles Lindbergh, who spent a great deal of time in the late 1930s gushing at how wonderful the Third Reich was. Before the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, Lindbergh helped form "America First" committees that campaigned to keep the U.S. from fighting the Axis powers. Lindbergh rose to become a demagogue and accused President Franklin Roosevelt of colluding with a Jewish lobby and Britain to drag America into World War II.

    For years this phrase was toxic. Pat Buchanan has used it from time to time, but "America first" and the idea it represented -- American neutrality towards the Nazis -- has been largely banished from respectable discourse.

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Just The Most Qualified

    It isn't just the "woman's card" that Hillary Clinton possesses but she is the MOST QUALIFIED. Although she does hold the "woman's card" too and it should not be denigrated. It is high time that this nation had a woman President - not just any woman but one as qualified as Ms. Clinton.

    There is not one person, including those already eliminated, in the 2016 presidential campaign who could hold a candle to Hillary Clinton's qualifications. She has been preparing for this job all her life both in education and experience.

    Of course in today's political campaigns, qualifications would seem to be rather lacking, hardly a consideration at all.

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The irony of celebrity populism

    "When you become famous," the famous political consultant James Carville once said, "being famous becomes your profession."

    It's a sign of the stunning success of Donald Trump's crossover act that we no longer even think about this campaign's most revolutionary effect on our politics: the demolition of the line between celebrity and political achievement.

     Of course, success in politics can itself breed celebrity. Carville earned his by combining his eccentric sense of humor with actual skill in helping Bill Clinton become president in 1992.

    But celebrity has never before been a sufficient qualification for the nation's highest office. Consider John McCain's signature attack on Barack Obama in 2008 in a commercial that began with the words: "He's the biggest celebrity in the world." The ad's next line captured the old war hero's disdain for his opponent and his fame: "But is he ready to lead?"

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There's something missing from our drug laws: Science

    Congress and President Obama are under pressure to reschedule marijuana. While rescheduling makes sense, it doesn't solve the state/federal conflict over marijuana (de-scheduling would be better). But more important, it wouldn't fix the broken scheduling system. Ideally, marijuana reform should be part of a broader bill rewriting the Controlled Substances Act.

    The Controlled Substances Act created a five-category scheduling system for most legal and illegal drugs (although alcohol and tobacco were notably omitted). Depending on what category a drug is in, the drug is either subject to varying degrees of regulation and control (Schedules II through V) -- or completely prohibited, otherwise unregulated and left to criminals to manufacture and distribute (Schedule I). The scheduling of various drugs was decided largely by Congress and absent a scientific process -- with some strange results.

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The paradox at the heart of our marijuana laws - and how to fix it

    As Congress and the Drug Enforcement Administration weigh whether marijuana should be rescheduled, public faith in the drug classification system continues to erode. Debate rages between those who emphasize the strangeness of marijuana being on the highly restrictive Schedule I alongside far more harmful drugs like heroin, and those who emphasize how strange it would be to put crude plant matter on a less restrictive schedule alongside well-specified FDA-approved medications.

    Both sides have a point, a paradox stemming from a design quirk of the 1970 Controlled Substances Act: The law takes pains to recognize that medically useful, FDA-approved drugs vary in harmfulness, but does not recognize that this is equally true of drugs with no approved medical use. By throwing all these diverse drugs into the same basket, federal law both baffles the public and makes it very difficult for researchers to evaluate whether tightly restricted drugs might have medical applications.

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A Clinton-Warren ticket?

    Running mates? It's not even May, and already we're talking running mates? Then let me toss Elizabeth Warren's name into the mix.

    I'm making several assumptions here -- in a year when assuming anything is dangerous. First, I believe Ted Cruz's desperate gamble of adding Carly Fiorina to his "ticket" will fail. He was right to throw some kind of Hail Mary, but I don't see how Fiorina attracts enough new support for Cruz to win the Indiana primary on Tuesday. And if he loses there, he's pretty much toast.

    Donald Trump's landslide wins this week in the Northeast gave him a bigger haul of convention delegates than even his most optimistic boosters had expected. If momentum still counts for anything in politics, Trump has it. And if he wins Indiana -- polls show him with about a six-point lead -- his path to the Republican nomination looks wide enough to taxi the rest of the way in his Boeing 757.

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The Donald's entertainment value

    The chances of Donald Trump becoming the Republican nominee for president have gone from impossible to probable, while Hillary Clinton's chances of being the Democrat have moved from likely to virtually certain. So, barring more surprises, it's probably going to be Hillary vs. The Donald in the fall.

    There is no mystery about Clinton. Those who support her as well as those who oppose her have little trouble explaining why. Trump is another matter. No one I know would even consider voting for Trump. So who are all these millions who support him? Why, they are working-class white men, we are told, who feel betrayed by the failure of both parties to deal with stagnant incomes, growing debts and shrinking possibilities for their retirements and their childrens' futures.

    It's a plausible theory. And it may help to explain Bernie Sanders. But no one has ever associated Trump with these blue-collar issues. How has he become the tribune of the people in this election? Is he just the one who got there first?

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May 1st

Confessions of a Luddite professor

    I had the good fortune on Wednesday to hear economist Robert Gordon talk about his magnum opus, "The Rise and Fall of American Economic Growth." Gordon has a somber tale to tell. He argues that U.S. economic growth ain't what it used to be, and that ain't gonna change over the next 25 years. This is due to myriad headwinds such as demographic slowdowns, rising inequality, fiscal constraints, and -- most important -- the failure of newer technologies to jumpstart economic growth the way that the Second Industrial Revolution did.

    It's his last point -- about the effect of information technology on productivity -- that prompts so much fierce debate. Economists are furiously debating whether the visible innovations in the information sector are leading to productivity advances that are going undetected in the current productivity statistics. On the one hand, the aggregate data suggests a serious productivity slowdown over the past decade. On the other hand, Google's chief economist, Hal Varian, insists that "there is a lack of appreciation for what's happening in Silicon Valley, because we don't have a good way to measure it."

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Some crimes can be forgotten

     The U.S. is supposed to be a nation of second chances, but for the 70 million Americans with a criminal record, we're not doing such a great job. Even among those whose crimes were nonviolent and committed long ago, too many still bear a scarlet letter. So it's encouraging to see many states now moving to expunge or seal the records of nonviolent crimes that aren't repeated.

    The stigma from a drug or other offense, even one committed in young adulthood, can linger for decades. In one recent experiment, job applicants randomly assigned a criminal record were half as likely as other applicants to get an offer of employment or even an interview request.

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Populism has run through US politics for a very long time

    Populism is hard to ignore in the current primary elections. Donald Trump, the self-described political outsider, is promising to "make America great again" by defending the people against Washington insiders, whom he portrays as self-interested, corrupt and incompetent. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont touts his track record as a longtime advocate of working people, ready to take on Wall Street and a corrupt campaign finance system.

    As a result, many pundits proclaim that this election is ushering in a new era of populist politics.

    But is populism really uncommon in U.S. presidential discourse? Our analysis of the past 12 presidential elections, presented in a forthcoming Social Forces article, suggests otherwise. Populism appears frequently in presidential campaigns, and it does so in a patterned and predictable way.

    What counts as populism?

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